\u00a0<\/p>\n
I can\u2019t wait to see the polls this week.\u00a0 Two weeks ago Trump was behind by 10 points, earlier last week by 5 points, the end of last week by 2 points and yesterday he was ahead by 3 points in the states that mattered.\u00a0 Yeah right!\u00a0 I can\u2019t wait to see what kind of fantasy the news wants us to buy this week.\u00a0 Not that these really aren\u2019t the polls, but the metho In 2001, a student and professors dealt with rumors that Greek Hospitals were doing large number of appendix operations on Albanian citizens.\u00a0 It was not reported in the statistics.\u00a0 So they studied the rumors in six hospitals and in fact an Albanian was 3 times more likely to have a healthy appendix taken out of them than a Greek citizen.\u00a0 Three times more likely to undergo an operation that wasn\u2019t needed!\u00a0 It was reported in an article called \u201cLies, Damned Lies and Medical Science.\u201d\u00a0 What would a \u201clies, damned lies and policing\u201d look like?<\/span><\/p>\n It has been said that 92% of statistics are made up on the spot.\u00a0 Sound a little high, maybe it is more like 76% of statistic are made up on the spot.\u00a0 Actually, I have seen from 26% to 92% when talking about what is made up on the spot \u2013 sort of evidence that the premise is true whatever the number is.\u00a0 So let me just point to four ways statistics can lie to you by looking at some of the myths of policing.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cA police officer is ten times more likely to kill himself than be shot and killed in the line of duty.\u201d\u00a0 Therefore, with a little logic, the suicide rate is very high with police officers and they are prone to depression and can become mentally unstable.\u00a0 WRONG, mostly at least.\u00a0 The initial statement is probably right for most professions, except maybe bridge workers or skyscraper welders.\u00a0 Very few people get shot and killed, or even die in the act of doing their work, than kill themselves.\u00a0 It is a meaningless statistic.\u00a0 When officers were held consistent for sex and age their rate is a little lower than the general population.\u00a0 Mike Aamodt showed that in a study for an FBI conference bringing together the top people in the field of suicide in law enforcement.\u00a0 I showed the same type of data, but not as conclusive as Dr. Aamodt.\u00a0 Now one suicide is too many as far as I am concerned, but generally cops are pretty stable individuals.\u00a0 We should continue to work with them on lowering the rate, but realize we are working with healthy people.<\/span><\/p>\n But, the statistic was presented in a fashion that make it totally worthless.\u00a0 It is the presentation that makes the statistic worthless, in fact it is not even a statistic at all. \u00a0For years it was backed up by showing the general population rate of all people with a lower rate, but very few five year olds kill themselves. \u00a0So they destroy the value of the statistic by comparing two groups that are meaningless.\u00a0 \u00a0It\u2019s only when you hold the statistic for the age of officers does it pop out that the police rate is not much different.\u00a0 Dr. Aamodt is better than 99.9% of researchers in understanding statistics, I know, he told me so. (And it probably is true!)<\/span><\/p>\n If you look at the average income in the area I live it will say that $72,000 is the average income for the area.\u00a0 Look closer and about 67% are below average.\u00a0 There is no limit on the high end of income, but there is definitely a bottom limit, therefore the whole average statistic is skewed, meaning it\u2019s worthless.\u00a0 Many people feel below average but are really above the median income for the area they are in, which for my area is around $50,000. \u00a0If you look in policing, the average number of citizen complaints is often used to show that a person does their job without causing problems to the citizenry.\u00a0 Again the wrong statistic as citizen complaints are highly correlated to area worked, number of arrests, and the type of job a person is doing.\u00a0 Telling when a person falls in the average range is a meaningless statistic because it is the wrong statistic.<\/span><\/p>\n Whether it is an average, or a multiple regression, people tend to know when they are using the wrong statistic.\u00a0 This is a way to purposely present the data in a misleading fashion to make you think a certain way.<\/span><\/p>\n Here is one statistic I use to make people less judgmental that you can\u2019t argue \u2013 \u201cHalf the world is below average in intelligence so don\u2019t be so judgmental.\u201d\u00a0 Stop and think about it.<\/span><\/p>\n The problem is that when many people see great big correlations and they start to believe in causation.\u00a0 Fisher in the 1950\u2019s came up with a phenomena called the \u201cTwisted Pear\u201d that has pretty much been ignored.\u00a0 \u00a0He said high correlations are often a result of part of a curve when really after that there is little correlation at all.\u00a0 Yet because part of the curve has such high correlation, the overall correlations look pretty good, when in fact it is not.\u00a0 On a graph it looks like a \u201ctwisted pear,\u201d thus the name.\u00a0\u00a0 So, whereas a test might predict whether a person can do a job or not at the lowest levels, it does not predict gradients of performance of the job.\u00a0 \u201cSuccess predicts success\u201d is usually a better indicator than a test score.\u00a0 When correlation gets confused with causation all kind of problems occur, and that is a general problem around the world.<\/span><\/p>\n Finally, we were taught as Ph.D.\u2019s that there is many different types of validity \u2013 internal, external, predictive, test, content, construct, criterion, convergent, discriminate and face validity.\u00a0 I don\u2019t really want to go into all of them and you most likely don\u2019t want me to.\u00a0 But face validity is the quality of the validity that looks good and makes sense, and also has the least meaning.\u00a0 There\u2019s not statistics for it, just whether it look like it will work.\u00a0 These days that is all that seems to matter anymore is the face validity.\u00a0 Does it look good, make me look good and does it shut people up.\u00a0 Science goes to the wayside.\u00a0 I think the Black Life Matters Movement falls in this area, as the honest statistics and the situations don\u2019t bear out the premise that cops shouldn\u2019t be more nervous around persons appear out of the mainstream and carrying guns.<\/span><\/p>\n![\"line](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/policepsychologyblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/line-chart.jpg?resize=240%2C149\")
ds and presentation do not seem very accurate anymore.\u00a0 In fact, statistics do not seem accurate anymore in general.\u00a0 You can\u2019t trust them.\u00a0 It brings back the old quote from Mark Twain \u201cThere are three types of lies:\u00a0 lies, damned lies and statistics.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\nThe Wrong Presentation<\/h2>\n
The Wrong Statistic<\/h2>\n
Twisted Pear<\/h2>\n
Validity of the Face<\/h2>\n
Quote Revisted<\/h2>\n